Kamala Harris’ Chances of Beating Donald Trump in Georgia: Polls

Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in Georgia, new polling shows.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Harris 0.2 points ahead of the former president, with 46.3 percent of the vote to Trump’s 46.1 percent.
It is the second time Harris has overtaken Trump in the Peach State since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 and she became the Democratic candidate. On August 15, she overtook Trump for one day, also with a 0.2-point lead—mirroring Biden’s 2020 win in the state, which he flipped from red to blue after winning by 0.2 points. The state had voted Republican in the previous six presidential elections.
Harris’ latest position in the polls comes amid a Fox News survey, conducted between August 23 and 26, that put her 2 points ahead of Trump in Georgia among registered voters, with 50 percent to his 48 percent.
The poll showed 80 percent of Black voters in Georgia approved of Harris, while 61 percent of white voters approved of Trump. However, the Republican’s support among Black voters almost tripled, increasing from 7 percent to 19 percent, the poll found. Georgia has one of the largest Black populations in the United States, 2020 census data shows.
The Fox News poll also found that Trump had support from 77 percent of white evangelical Christians in the state, 71 percent of rural white voters, 74 percent of white men without a degree, and 66 percent of white women without a degree, while Harris had support from 74 percent of non-white voters and 54 percent of voters with a college degree.
The poll surveyed 1,014 registered voters in Georgia and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Newsweek has contacted Fox News and the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Despite Harris’ lead in the state in recent polls, multiple poll trackers still put Trump ahead in Georgia.
For example, the RealClearPolitics poll tracker puts Trump 0.7 points ahead of Harris, while Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model put Trump 0.6 points ahead of Harris. However, his model also shows that the Democrats have gained 0.9 points in Georgia polls in the past week and 3.3 points in the past month.
Polls have consistently shown Trump’s lead decreasing in Georgia and other swing states since Harris entered the race, with polls conducted between July 22 and July 24 in Georgia suggesting the former president was up by as much as 5 points in the state. In a poll published by Insider Advantage on July 16, Trump held a 10-point lead among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup with Harris.
Harris has eaten into his lead across most swing states, where the Trump campaign is focusing its efforts, meaning Trump is now behind in all but one of the seven key battleground states.
On Wednesday, the Trump campaign dismissed the Fox News poll in a news release, calling it “atrocious polling.”
“A look at polling from this same time period in 2020 shows that Fox was off in North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada from either 5.3 percent to 9.7 percent,” it said, adding, “Fox’s only Georgia poll in 2020 was released in June and that one overstated Joe Biden’s support by 1.7%.”